{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 42,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np #数据处理最重要的模块\n",
    "\n",
    "import pandas as pd#数据处理最重要的模块\n",
    "\n",
    "import scipy.stats as stats #统计模块\n",
    "\n",
    "import scipy\n",
    "\n",
    "# import pymysql# 导入数据库模块\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "from datetime import datetime #时间模块\n",
    "\n",
    "import statsmodels.formula.api as smf # OLS regression\n",
    "\n",
    "#import pyreadr # read RDS file\n",
    "\n",
    "from matplotlib import style\n",
    "\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt #画图模块\n",
    "import matplotlib.dates as mdates\n",
    "\n",
    "from matplotlib.font_manager import FontProperties #作图中文\n",
    "from pylab import mpl\n",
    "\n",
    "#mpl.rcParam['font.sans-serif']= ['imHei' ]\n",
    "\n",
    "#plt.rcParams['font.family'] = 'Times New Roman'\n",
    "#输出矢量图，渲染矢量图\n",
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "%config InlineBackend.figure_format='svg'\n",
    "from IPython.core.interactiveshell import InteractiveShell #jupter运行输出的模块\n",
    "#显示，每一个运行结果\n",
    "InteractiveShell.ast_node_interactivity='all'\n",
    "#设置行不限制数量\n",
    "#pd.set_option('display.max_rows',None)\n",
    "#设置不限制数量\n",
    "pd.set_option('display.max_columns',None)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 43,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
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       "\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
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       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Preclose</th>\n",
       "      <th>Open</th>\n",
       "      <th>Highest</th>\n",
       "      <th>Lowest</th>\n",
       "      <th>Close</th>\n",
       "      <th>Volume</th>\n",
       "      <th>Money</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Day</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1990-12-19</th>\n",
       "      <td></td>\n",
       "      <td>96.050</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.980</td>\n",
       "      <td>95.790</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.980</td>\n",
       "      <td>126000.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.940000e+05</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1990-12-20</th>\n",
       "      <td>99.98</td>\n",
       "      <td>104.300</td>\n",
       "      <td>104.390</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.980</td>\n",
       "      <td>104.390</td>\n",
       "      <td>19700.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.400000e+04</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1990-12-21</th>\n",
       "      <td>104.39</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.130</td>\n",
       "      <td>103.730</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.130</td>\n",
       "      <td>2800.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.600000e+04</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1990-12-24</th>\n",
       "      <td>109.13</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.570</td>\n",
       "      <td>114.550</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.130</td>\n",
       "      <td>114.550</td>\n",
       "      <td>3200.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.100000e+04</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1990-12-25</th>\n",
       "      <td>114.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.090</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.250</td>\n",
       "      <td>114.550</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.250</td>\n",
       "      <td>1500.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.000000e+03</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-24</th>\n",
       "      <td>2748.918</td>\n",
       "      <td>2770.754</td>\n",
       "      <td>2863.152</td>\n",
       "      <td>2761.372</td>\n",
       "      <td>2863.126</td>\n",
       "      <td>4776195.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.427953e+07</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-25</th>\n",
       "      <td>2863.126</td>\n",
       "      <td>2901.419</td>\n",
       "      <td>2952.451</td>\n",
       "      <td>2889.048</td>\n",
       "      <td>2896.306</td>\n",
       "      <td>5682598.16</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.166981e+07</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-26</th>\n",
       "      <td>2896.306</td>\n",
       "      <td>2893.745</td>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>2889.014</td>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>5763192.61</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.246691e+07</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-27</th>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>3049.103</td>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>3017.445</td>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>4922871.63</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.806126e+07</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>3194.722</td>\n",
       "      <td>3358.588</td>\n",
       "      <td>3153.697</td>\n",
       "      <td>3336.497</td>\n",
       "      <td>11023379.17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.167773e+08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>8251 rows × 7 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            Preclose      Open   Highest    Lowest     Close       Volume  \\\n",
       "Day                                                                         \n",
       "1990-12-19              96.050    99.980    95.790    99.980    126000.00   \n",
       "1990-12-20     99.98   104.300   104.390    99.980   104.390     19700.00   \n",
       "1990-12-21    104.39   109.070   109.130   103.730   109.130      2800.00   \n",
       "1990-12-24    109.13   113.570   114.550   109.130   114.550      3200.00   \n",
       "1990-12-25    114.55   120.090   120.250   114.550   120.250      1500.00   \n",
       "...              ...       ...       ...       ...       ...          ...   \n",
       "2024-09-24  2748.918  2770.754  2863.152  2761.372  2863.126   4776195.45   \n",
       "2024-09-25  2863.126  2901.419  2952.451  2889.048  2896.306   5682598.16   \n",
       "2024-09-26  2896.306  2893.745  3000.953  2889.014  3000.953   5763192.61   \n",
       "2024-09-27  3000.953  3049.103  3087.529  3017.445  3087.529   4922871.63   \n",
       "2024-09-30  3087.529  3194.722  3358.588  3153.697  3336.497  11023379.17   \n",
       "\n",
       "                   Money  \n",
       "Day                       \n",
       "1990-12-19  4.940000e+05  \n",
       "1990-12-20  8.400000e+04  \n",
       "1990-12-21  1.600000e+04  \n",
       "1990-12-24  3.100000e+04  \n",
       "1990-12-25  6.000000e+03  \n",
       "...                  ...  \n",
       "2024-09-24  4.427953e+07  \n",
       "2024-09-25  5.166981e+07  \n",
       "2024-09-26  5.246691e+07  \n",
       "2024-09-27  4.806126e+07  \n",
       "2024-09-30  1.167773e+08  \n",
       "\n",
       "[8251 rows x 7 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 43,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data=pd.read_csv('000001.csv') #'datasets/000001.csv'运行不了 不到为什么\n",
    "data['Day']=pd.to_datetime(data['Day'],format='%Y/%m/%d')\n",
    "data.set_index('Day',inplace=True)\n",
    "data.sort_values(by=['Day'],axis=0,ascending=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Preclose</th>\n",
       "      <th>Open</th>\n",
       "      <th>Highest</th>\n",
       "      <th>Lowest</th>\n",
       "      <th>Close</th>\n",
       "      <th>Volume</th>\n",
       "      <th>Money</th>\n",
       "      <th>Raw_return</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Day</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-03</th>\n",
       "      <td>647.870</td>\n",
       "      <td>637.720</td>\n",
       "      <td>647.710</td>\n",
       "      <td>630.530</td>\n",
       "      <td>639.880</td>\n",
       "      <td>23451800.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.806930e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.012333</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-04</th>\n",
       "      <td>639.880</td>\n",
       "      <td>641.900</td>\n",
       "      <td>655.510</td>\n",
       "      <td>638.860</td>\n",
       "      <td>653.810</td>\n",
       "      <td>42222000.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.069230e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021770</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-05</th>\n",
       "      <td>653.810</td>\n",
       "      <td>655.380</td>\n",
       "      <td>657.520</td>\n",
       "      <td>645.810</td>\n",
       "      <td>646.890</td>\n",
       "      <td>43012300.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.015330e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.010584</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-06</th>\n",
       "      <td>646.890</td>\n",
       "      <td>642.750</td>\n",
       "      <td>643.890</td>\n",
       "      <td>636.330</td>\n",
       "      <td>640.760</td>\n",
       "      <td>48748200.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.537580e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.009476</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-09</th>\n",
       "      <td>640.760</td>\n",
       "      <td>637.520</td>\n",
       "      <td>637.550</td>\n",
       "      <td>625.040</td>\n",
       "      <td>626.000</td>\n",
       "      <td>50985100.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.985190e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.023035</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-24</th>\n",
       "      <td>2748.918</td>\n",
       "      <td>2770.754</td>\n",
       "      <td>2863.152</td>\n",
       "      <td>2761.372</td>\n",
       "      <td>2863.126</td>\n",
       "      <td>4776195.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.427953e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.041547</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-25</th>\n",
       "      <td>2863.126</td>\n",
       "      <td>2901.419</td>\n",
       "      <td>2952.451</td>\n",
       "      <td>2889.048</td>\n",
       "      <td>2896.306</td>\n",
       "      <td>5682598.16</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.166981e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.011589</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-26</th>\n",
       "      <td>2896.306</td>\n",
       "      <td>2893.745</td>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>2889.014</td>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>5763192.61</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.246691e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.036131</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-27</th>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>3049.103</td>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>3017.445</td>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>4922871.63</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.806126e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.028850</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>3194.722</td>\n",
       "      <td>3358.588</td>\n",
       "      <td>3153.697</td>\n",
       "      <td>3336.497</td>\n",
       "      <td>11023379.17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.167773e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.080637</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>7223 rows × 8 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            Preclose      Open   Highest    Lowest     Close       Volume  \\\n",
       "Day                                                                         \n",
       "1995-01-03   647.870   637.720   647.710   630.530   639.880  23451800.00   \n",
       "1995-01-04   639.880   641.900   655.510   638.860   653.810  42222000.00   \n",
       "1995-01-05   653.810   655.380   657.520   645.810   646.890  43012300.00   \n",
       "1995-01-06   646.890   642.750   643.890   636.330   640.760  48748200.00   \n",
       "1995-01-09   640.760   637.520   637.550   625.040   626.000  50985100.00   \n",
       "...              ...       ...       ...       ...       ...          ...   \n",
       "2024-09-24  2748.918  2770.754  2863.152  2761.372  2863.126   4776195.45   \n",
       "2024-09-25  2863.126  2901.419  2952.451  2889.048  2896.306   5682598.16   \n",
       "2024-09-26  2896.306  2893.745  3000.953  2889.014  3000.953   5763192.61   \n",
       "2024-09-27  3000.953  3049.103  3087.529  3017.445  3087.529   4922871.63   \n",
       "2024-09-30  3087.529  3194.722  3358.588  3153.697  3336.497  11023379.17   \n",
       "\n",
       "                   Money  Raw_return  \n",
       "Day                                   \n",
       "1995-01-03  1.806930e+08   -0.012333  \n",
       "1995-01-04  3.069230e+08    0.021770  \n",
       "1995-01-05  3.015330e+08   -0.010584  \n",
       "1995-01-06  3.537580e+08   -0.009476  \n",
       "1995-01-09  3.985190e+08   -0.023035  \n",
       "...                  ...         ...  \n",
       "2024-09-24  4.427953e+07    0.041547  \n",
       "2024-09-25  5.166981e+07    0.011589  \n",
       "2024-09-26  5.246691e+07    0.036131  \n",
       "2024-09-27  4.806126e+07    0.028850  \n",
       "2024-09-30  1.167773e+08    0.080637  \n",
       "\n",
       "[7223 rows x 8 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 44,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data_new=data['1995-01':'2024-09'].copy()\n",
    "data_new['Close']=pd.to_numeric(data_new['Close'])\n",
    "data_new['Preclose']=pd.to_numeric(data_new['Preclose'])\n",
    "#计算000001上证指数日收益率 两种:\n",
    "data_new['Raw_return']=data_new['Close']/data_new['Preclose']-1\n",
    "data_new"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 45,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Preclose</th>\n",
       "      <th>Open</th>\n",
       "      <th>Highest</th>\n",
       "      <th>Lowest</th>\n",
       "      <th>Close</th>\n",
       "      <th>Volume</th>\n",
       "      <th>Money</th>\n",
       "      <th>Raw_return</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Day</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-03</th>\n",
       "      <td>647.870</td>\n",
       "      <td>637.720</td>\n",
       "      <td>647.710</td>\n",
       "      <td>630.530</td>\n",
       "      <td>639.880</td>\n",
       "      <td>23451800.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.806930e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.012333</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-04</th>\n",
       "      <td>639.880</td>\n",
       "      <td>641.900</td>\n",
       "      <td>655.510</td>\n",
       "      <td>638.860</td>\n",
       "      <td>653.810</td>\n",
       "      <td>42222000.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.069230e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021770</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-05</th>\n",
       "      <td>653.810</td>\n",
       "      <td>655.380</td>\n",
       "      <td>657.520</td>\n",
       "      <td>645.810</td>\n",
       "      <td>646.890</td>\n",
       "      <td>43012300.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.015330e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.010584</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-06</th>\n",
       "      <td>646.890</td>\n",
       "      <td>642.750</td>\n",
       "      <td>643.890</td>\n",
       "      <td>636.330</td>\n",
       "      <td>640.760</td>\n",
       "      <td>48748200.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.537580e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.009476</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-09</th>\n",
       "      <td>640.760</td>\n",
       "      <td>637.520</td>\n",
       "      <td>637.550</td>\n",
       "      <td>625.040</td>\n",
       "      <td>626.000</td>\n",
       "      <td>50985100.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.985190e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.023035</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-24</th>\n",
       "      <td>2748.918</td>\n",
       "      <td>2770.754</td>\n",
       "      <td>2863.152</td>\n",
       "      <td>2761.372</td>\n",
       "      <td>2863.126</td>\n",
       "      <td>4776195.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.427953e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.041547</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-25</th>\n",
       "      <td>2863.126</td>\n",
       "      <td>2901.419</td>\n",
       "      <td>2952.451</td>\n",
       "      <td>2889.048</td>\n",
       "      <td>2896.306</td>\n",
       "      <td>5682598.16</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.166981e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.011589</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-26</th>\n",
       "      <td>2896.306</td>\n",
       "      <td>2893.745</td>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>2889.014</td>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>5763192.61</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.246691e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.036131</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-27</th>\n",
       "      <td>3000.953</td>\n",
       "      <td>3049.103</td>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>3017.445</td>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>4922871.63</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.806126e+07</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.028850</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>3087.529</td>\n",
       "      <td>3194.722</td>\n",
       "      <td>3358.588</td>\n",
       "      <td>3153.697</td>\n",
       "      <td>3336.497</td>\n",
       "      <td>11023379.17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.167773e+08</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.080637</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>7223 rows × 8 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            Preclose      Open   Highest    Lowest     Close       Volume  \\\n",
       "Day                                                                         \n",
       "1995-01-03   647.870   637.720   647.710   630.530   639.880  23451800.00   \n",
       "1995-01-04   639.880   641.900   655.510   638.860   653.810  42222000.00   \n",
       "1995-01-05   653.810   655.380   657.520   645.810   646.890  43012300.00   \n",
       "1995-01-06   646.890   642.750   643.890   636.330   640.760  48748200.00   \n",
       "1995-01-09   640.760   637.520   637.550   625.040   626.000  50985100.00   \n",
       "...              ...       ...       ...       ...       ...          ...   \n",
       "2024-09-24  2748.918  2770.754  2863.152  2761.372  2863.126   4776195.45   \n",
       "2024-09-25  2863.126  2901.419  2952.451  2889.048  2896.306   5682598.16   \n",
       "2024-09-26  2896.306  2893.745  3000.953  2889.014  3000.953   5763192.61   \n",
       "2024-09-27  3000.953  3049.103  3087.529  3017.445  3087.529   4922871.63   \n",
       "2024-09-30  3087.529  3194.722  3358.588  3153.697  3336.497  11023379.17   \n",
       "\n",
       "                   Money  Raw_return  \n",
       "Day                                   \n",
       "1995-01-03  1.806930e+08   -0.012333  \n",
       "1995-01-04  3.069230e+08    0.021770  \n",
       "1995-01-05  3.015330e+08   -0.010584  \n",
       "1995-01-06  3.537580e+08   -0.009476  \n",
       "1995-01-09  3.985190e+08   -0.023035  \n",
       "...                  ...         ...  \n",
       "2024-09-24  4.427953e+07    0.041547  \n",
       "2024-09-25  5.166981e+07    0.011589  \n",
       "2024-09-26  5.246691e+07    0.036131  \n",
       "2024-09-27  4.806126e+07    0.028850  \n",
       "2024-09-30  1.167773e+08    0.080637  \n",
       "\n",
       "[7223 rows x 8 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 45,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Month_data=data_new.resample('ME')['Raw_return'].apply(lambda x:(1+x).prod()-1).to_frame()\n",
    "data_new"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Data Filter 数据节选"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# 数据的缩尾/截尾"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 固定比率法\n",
    "- 截尾：删除超过99%（95%）分位数的数据，删除小于1%（5%）分位数的数据\n",
    "- 缩尾：把超过99%（95%）分位数的数据，替换成99%分位数；小于1%（5%）分位数的数据，替换成1%分位数"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 46,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th>Raw_return</th>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Day</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
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       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.131631</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-02-28</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.023694</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-03-31</th>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-04-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.103552</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.207922</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.005801</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-06-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.038684</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-07-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.009656</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.032849</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.173908</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>357 rows × 1 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            Raw_return\n",
       "Day                   \n",
       "1995-01-31   -0.131631\n",
       "1995-02-28   -0.023694\n",
       "1995-03-31    0.177803\n",
       "1995-04-30   -0.103552\n",
       "1995-05-31    0.207922\n",
       "...                ...\n",
       "2024-05-31   -0.005801\n",
       "2024-06-30   -0.038684\n",
       "2024-07-31   -0.009656\n",
       "2024-08-31   -0.032849\n",
       "2024-09-30    0.173908\n",
       "\n",
       "[357 rows x 1 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 46,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Month_data_fix=Month_data['1995-01':'2024-09'].copy()\n",
    "Month_data_fix"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 47,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# 截尾\n",
    "#Month_data_fix=Month_data_fix[Month_data_fix['Raw_return']<Month_data_fix['Raw_return'].quantile(0.95)]\n",
    "#Month_data_fix=Month_data_fix[Month_data_fix['Raw_return']>Month_data_fix['Raw_return'].quantile(0.05)]\n",
    "#Month_data_fix"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 48,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Day</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
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       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-01-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.131631</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-02-28</th>\n",
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       "      <th>1995-03-31</th>\n",
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       "      <th>1995-04-30</th>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1995-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.207922</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-05-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.005801</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-06-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.038684</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-07-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.009656</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-08-31</th>\n",
       "      <td>-0.032849</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2024-09-30</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.173908</td>\n",
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       "<p>357 rows × 1 columns</p>\n",
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            Raw_return\n",
       "Day                   \n",
       "1995-01-31   -0.131631\n",
       "1995-02-28   -0.023694\n",
       "1995-03-31    0.177803\n",
       "1995-04-30   -0.103552\n",
       "1995-05-31    0.207922\n",
       "...                ...\n",
       "2024-05-31   -0.005801\n",
       "2024-06-30   -0.038684\n",
       "2024-07-31   -0.009656\n",
       "2024-08-31   -0.032849\n",
       "2024-09-30    0.173908\n",
       "\n",
       "[357 rows x 1 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 48,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# 缩尾\n",
    "Month_data_fix[Month_data_fix['Raw_return']>Month_data_fix['Raw_return'].quantile(0.99)]=Month_data_fix['Raw_return'].quantile(0.99)\n",
    "Month_data_fix[Month_data_fix['Raw_return']<Month_data_fix['Raw_return'].quantile(0.01)]=Month_data_fix['Raw_return'].quantile(0.01)\n",
    "Month_data_fix"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 49,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#截尾会让数据减少，缩尾不会改变数据量，所以要把截尾注释掉（#）"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 50,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "count    357.000000\n",
       "mean       0.007448\n",
       "std        0.076004\n",
       "min       -0.246314\n",
       "25%       -0.039178\n",
       "50%        0.004296\n",
       "75%        0.046311\n",
       "max        0.320558\n",
       "Name: Raw_return, dtype: float64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 50,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "count    357.000000\n",
       "mean       0.007104\n",
       "std        0.073350\n",
       "min       -0.202144\n",
       "25%       -0.039178\n",
       "50%        0.004296\n",
       "75%        0.046311\n",
       "max        0.215106\n",
       "Name: Raw_return, dtype: float64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 50,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Month_data['Raw_return'].describe().round(6)\n",
    "Month_data_fix['Raw_return'].describe().round(6)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# 参数假设检验"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 51,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.005529580266316066"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 51,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "np.mean(Month_data['2000-01':]['Raw_return'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 52,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 1000x600 with 1 Axes>"
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     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fig, ax=plt.subplots(figsize=(10,6))\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "ax.plot(\"Raw_return\",\n",
    "        '.-r',\n",
    "        label='Monthly Return',\n",
    "        linewidth=2,\n",
    "        data=Month_data['2000-01':])\n",
    "ax.set_title('Monthly Return of 000001')\n",
    "ax.set_ylabel('Monthly Return')\n",
    "ax.set_xlabel('Time')\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "#添加直线\n",
    "plt.axhline(y=np.mean(Month_data['2000-01':]['Raw_return']),color='b',linestyle='--',linewidth=2,label='Mean Monthly Return')\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "data_format=mdates.DateFormatter('%Y')\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(data_format)\n",
    "ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(1))\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.xticks(rotation=90)\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.legend(loc='upper right')\n",
    "plt.show;"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "投资组合Portfolio的表现如何呢？\n",
    "- $H_0:R= 0$\n",
    "- $H_1:R \\neq 0$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 53,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#latex中不等号用 \\neq 打出"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 54,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "297"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 54,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "len(Month_data['2000-01':'2024-09'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "我们希望拒绝上面的$H_0:R=0$,接受$R \\neq 0$。\n",
    "在统计结果里面，我们希望看到pvalue越小越好，也就是犯错误的概率越小越好。对应的就是statistic（t值）越大越好。"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 55,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "TtestResult(statistic=1.8515511117890133, pvalue=0.06491819809694582, df=356)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 55,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "stats.ttest_1samp(Month_data['Raw_return'],0)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 56,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "TtestResult(statistic=1.3453254245037998, pvalue=0.17954988199447114, df=296)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 56,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "stats.ttest_1samp(Month_data['2000-01':'2024--09']['Raw_return'],0)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 57,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "TtestResult(statistic=1.8515511117890133, pvalue=0.06491819809694582, df=356)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 57,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "stats.ttest_1samp(Month_data['1995-01':'2024--09']['Raw_return'],0)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 58,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.002625196933440861"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 58,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "np.mean(Month_data['2020-01':'2024-09']['Raw_return'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 59,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "TtestResult(statistic=0.4224961922232944, pvalue=0.6742807368510209, df=56)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 59,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "stats.ttest_1samp(Month_data['2020-01':'2024--09']['Raw_return'],0)"
   ]
  }
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